audacity by any other name...

Call me cynical if you wish, but I think not. Skeptical? Most definitely. Only a fool wouldn't be.

Therefore, when yet another super-highly-extremely improbable occurence occurs in Obama's world, and by some further coincidence a) it makes him appeal to some voting block and b) we all manage to hear about it, then it's time to make [yet] a[nother] note of it.

This week's Obamincidence concerns the very solemn, private prayer of Barack Hussein Obama at the holy Western Wall in Jerusalem. Apparently, highly visible types often have their photos taken at the Wall. But when was the last time someone managed to have his "prayer" leaked to the press?

In the prayer closet.

Never, that's when. The official story is that some mischievous local spied Obama and stole his little scroll (of hotel stationery), containing his private entreaty to the Almighty, which he had meekly stuffed into the Wall.

That much may be true. But whether the little thief had recently cashed a check from the Obama for President 2008 bank account is the real question.

Of course, Occam's Razor says, "it is what it is." And Train's corollary to Occam's Razor says, "...until it's not."

So, is it a new low in deceptive campaign tactics or isn't it?

Well, let's apply a little hindsight to our analysis. The object of anything a presidential candidate does is to win the hearts of voters. All events that can be are choreographed to do exactly that; and those that can't be are spun to the same end. And be sure, with hundreds of millions of dollars being spent to grab that Big Brass Ring, the choreography will be top-notch and the spin-doctors will make Ben Casey seem like an amateur.

Today, Bloomberg News proclaimed,

Obama Wins Young Evangelical Voters in Battleground-State Push

Yes, this a mere news-day (Sunday doesn't really count as a news-day) since this other headline warmed up our coffee on Saturday morning:

DEAR GOD

*OBAMA'S SECRET PRAYER MESSAGE

*THEFT SETS OFF WAILING

During a presidential campaign, the rules that apply to everyday life are suspended. It's as if Hollywood takes over for a time, and the campaign trail becomes its set. And everyone knows that, on a Hollywood set, Occam's Razor does not apply because things are never what they seem. Every prop is carefuly placed to compliment the image.

This is not a commentary on the sincerity of anybody's prayers. Only on the sincerity of one's multi-million-dollar image. And on his choice of props.

So be skeptical. Or be fooled.

Pardon me...

...but, though slowly, the wheels of justice still grind.

Picking over-ripe, low-hanging fruit with which to pelt her political anti-selves, the old Gray "Lady" has put on the table the subject of presidential pardons.

From the New York Times:

Among the petitioners is Michael Milken, the billionaire former junk bond king turned philanthropist, who is seeking a pardon for his 1990 conviction for securities fraud, the Justice Department said. Mr. Milken sought a pardon eight years ago from President Bill Clinton, and submitted a new petition in June.

"Felon" is a dirty word that is prominent in the piece -- the very headline, in fact -- and John Walker Lindh, another pardon hopeful, is pretty despicable company to be associated with. Mr. Lindh, a citizen-turned-terrorist, doesn't deserve the rights that felons are denied. But why should a "philanthropist" suffer the same penalty?

Milken, junk bonds and the very public destruction of Drexel Burnham Lambert were headlines a decade before "perp walks" became a regular media offering. The first legitimate business which RICO (a law intended to give government the power to seize assets of Mob controlled businesses) was (mis)applied to was Drexel.

In fact, the case, its consequences and penalties were so breathtakingly large that a study was done after the headlines started to thin out to ascertain just how much real "damage" the offenses for which Mr. Milken earned the title of "felon" had caused. That study put the number at about a quarter million dollars -- the equivalent of a parking ticket in the securities industry, which is known for its web of vague regulations that are quite open to "interpretation." [I'll try to find a reference to it, but it was a very long time ago.]

To my knowledge, no study was done to ascertain the economic benefit of this radical tool of corporate finance made newly accessible through Mr. Milken's efforts.

In the process of pursuing "justice" against the man who singlehandedly made junk bond financing a mainstay in the capital markets, Drexel was ruined (wealth destroyed, jobs lost); Milken, his brother, their families, employees, and anyone whose shadow had ever crossed theirs were dragged into legal hell: Michael Milken, the first Wall Streeter to earn $1 billion in a year -- back when it was a lot of money -- was forced to relinquish it all. The nuclear option had been used by Washington on Wall Street.

In the aftermath, the junk bond market froze, as did, to a lesser degree, stock and credit markets as market-makers huddled with counsel to discuss whether saying things like "your bunny has a good nose" over the telephone was legal or not.

Coincidentally, or consequently, the temporary paranoia of the credit markets brought about the S&L "crisis," the end of what was, at that time, a "real estate boom," and a deep U.S. recession. Then Bill "it-depends-on-what-you-mean-by-'is'" Clinton was elected.

The world was never quite the same after that.

The fact that Mr. Clinton refused to pardon Mr. Milken is a good sign that he should be pardoned. This can be deduced from the sorts of people Mr. Clinton did pardon. Mark Rich, for example, a "felon" financier arguably worthy of the title, was one notable recipient of the Clinton Indulgence.

Even Rudy Giuliani, who prosecuted Michael Milken, wanted to go into business with him a few years later. The hell he was put through cannot be undone, but the travesty of the residual label can, by pardoning this most un-criminal "felon."

And unpardon Mark Rich to do it, if you have to.

[thanks to these guys for the heads up.]

...while you were out...

The Powers that do Be were definitely caught between a rock and a hard place today. And I'm not referring to Long Island Sound.

I mean, how do you tell the world, "err, one of the largest bank failures in history just happened", when the world already has its finger on the "sell" key, and its eyes on the Bloomberg for "Fannie and Freddie" rumors?

Well, if you're the Powers that do Be, you wait until Friday at 6:59 pm, when nobody can do anything about it, even if they did get the news before arriving at the Hamptons or the satellites of Greenwich.

Nobody that is, except those who -- and this is the upside -- have the most at stake and will likely have the coolest heads. The frenzied masses (including that segment of them that hangs in the Hamptons and Greenwich) have been put on ice and, as humiliating as it might be it is, as I said, the upside. Because...

...it would have been sheer mayhem had the news broken during market hours, as illiquid as markets are during the dog days, and as keenly tuned as all ears are for the final note of this measure of musical chairs (which, to most, is but an echo...).

Not that the demise of IndyMac took anyone by surprise, but FDIC storm troopers in a bank makes for a powerful headline, especially in a skittish market.

Consider former Treasury Secretary John Snow's comments on the financially suicidal "management" of Fannie and Freddie under a previous administration that history is slowly coming to associate with such notoriety: "the business model they were using was really the model of a hedge fund."

Nothing scandalous about being a hedge fund. Unless you're a "Government Sponsored Enterprise," and you borrow billions of dollars a week at a whisker above government rates, because everyone understands you are, implictly, backed by the full faith and credit of said government. Then it's a scandal -- and a "moral hazard" -- to be a hedge fund.

There were already too many dangerous headlines scrolling around. Better to wait until after the doors are shut to drop the IndyMac bombshell. In the rough-and-tumble of life, sometimes the best decision is the least-worst decision.

Stay tuned to your WSJ Online or Bloomberg this weekend...Monday promises to be full of window dressing and damage control.

[got the tip here.]

last edit 7/13/08 @ 12:13 am